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In the new energy and new forces, NIO is the company with the greatest ups and downs, or even one of them.

In this year’s Hong Kong stock market, NIO is one of the few new energy vehicle companies whose share price has fallen. Since the beginning of the year, NIO’s share price has fallen by more than 24%, the ideal share price has risen by more than 80%, Xiaopeng has risen by more than 61%, and BYD’s shares have risen by more than 12%.

Behind the weakness of NIO’s share price, a very important reason is that in the current era of increasingly fierce competition for new energy vehicles, NIO’s overly expensive approach has added more uncertainty to it.

With the release of the third quarter report, this situation has changed. In the third quarter, NIO delivered 55,400 vehicles, an increase of 135.7% month-on-month, a record high, and gross profit margin increased by 4.8 percentage points month-on-month to 11%, exceeding market expectations (10.2%). NIO, who breathed a sigh of relief, rose nearly 10% two days after the release of the financial report.

More noteworthy than the financial figures is that NIO has finally begun to learn to save money, such as opening the power exchange alliance, abolishing non-core business departments, etc. But the crisis has not completely passed, and as new energy vehicles roll into the high-end car market, NIO will also face a new test.

This paper holds the following views:

1.NIO’s third-quarter results exceeded expectations, but it remains under pressure for the long term.In the third quarter, NIO deliveries and gross profit margins achieved rapid growth. But this largely relied on the untying of power exchange services and car purchases. Those who were unwilling to use power exchange services paid less, which stimulated sales. In July and August, NIO’s monthly sales were around 20,000 vehicles. But by September and October, NIO’s monthly sales had fallen back to about 16,000 vehicles.

2.NIO began to learn to save money.NIO eliminated redundant business, driving the proportion of sales and administrative expenses down 13.6 percentage points month-on-month. At the same time, NIO is also making active strategic adjustments and measures, such as opening up power exchange services to enhance scale effect and reducing vehicle manufacturing costs independently.

3.NIO is taking a big test in the high-end car market.All parties in the industry are collectively sprinting to the high-end car market. At the beginning of next year, Ideal and Xiaopeng will have new models priced at 300,000 yuan. And before the second half of next year, NIO will not have new models on the market. In the case of already declining sales of existing models, NIO’s competitive pressure will increase unprecedented.

01 Gross margin back in double digits

Gross margin has always been the most concerned indicator of NIO’s financial reports. Affected by factors such as falling sales volume and industry price wars. NIO’s business gross margin has stayed in single digits for three consecutive quarters. In the third quarter, NIO reversed this trend, and the automotive gross margin increased by 4.8 percentage points month-on-month to 11%, exceeding market expectations (10.2%).

NIO’s gross margin returned to double digits after three quarters, not only due to the decline in supply chain costs, but also due to the return of NIO’s sales volume to high growth.

The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell from 307,500 yuan/ton in July to 171,000 yuan/ton on November 1. Considering that the cost of batteries in pure electric models accounts for about 40%, the decline in battery prices will naturally bring about a decrease in car costs. NIO also mentioned in the third quarterly report that the company’s battery unit cost decreased in the third quarter.

At the same time, NIO sales also returned to high growth in the third quarter. In the third quarter, NIO delivered 55,400 vehicles, an increase of 135.7% month-on-month, and the delivery volume reached a record high. The dilution of amortized costs caused by the significant increase in car sales made NIO bicycle costs 7,000 yuan lower than in the previous quarter.

Among them, in the car sales structure, the ES6 with relatively high pricing has boosted sales by changing the model. Its sales share has increased from 25% in the last quarter to 50% in the third quarter, so that the average price of bicycle sales has increased to 314,000, an increase of 8,600 yuan from the previous quarter. The cost of each car has decreased by 7,000 compared with the previous quarter, but the price has increased by 8,600, so that the gross profit of each car sold by NIO in the third quarter is 35,000 yuan, which is 16,000 higher than the previous quarter.

Although the increase in sales volume and the increase in the proportion of high-priced ES6 have driven the improvement of the company’s gross profit margin. But in the long run, it is difficult to maintain the high growth of NIO sales. The reason is that the increase in sales in the third quarter was affected by the untying of power replacement and car buying services, and the disguised price reduction promoted the release of sales. In July and August, NIO’s monthly sales were around 20,000, but in September and October, the monthly sales volume had dropped to about 16,000.

Although the high growth brought about by the unbundling of power exchange services is a short-term event, changes in business strategy are having a profound impact on NIO’s profitability.

02 NIO starts to learn to save money

At the NIO Science and Technology Innovation Day two months ago, Li Bin said this: "Yesterday, He Xiaopeng asked a media person to tell me not to invest so much money, thank you, but NIO will continue to invest in the long-term."

Li Bin’s words were also in line with the outside world’s perception of NIO. Compared with other new forces, NIO would "burn money" more. But in the end, the situation was stronger than people.

In the third quarter, NIO’s sales and administrative expenses fell by 13.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The decrease in expense ratio is due to NIO’s elimination of redundant business. "NIO will carry out adjustments involving organizational and resource investment directions, including reducing the redundant personnel and institutional settings by about 10%," Li Bin said in an internal letter in November. At the same time, NIO will also make adjustments to projects that have not been profitable for three years or have not contributed to the improvement of gross profit. Dolphin Investment Research forecasts that after the layoffs, it is expected to save NIO 10-1.50 billion per year.

Not only shrinking the business, NIO also adjusted its strategy. At the end of November, NIO successively cooperated with two major automakers, Changan and Geely, on the power exchange business. For a long time, due to the huge investment and the harsh requirements of the break-even point, the power exchange service has been a drag bottle for NIO’s profits. In the third quarter, the gross loss rate of the service business including the power exchange business reached -24%. That is to say, the gross profit earned by selling cars 350 million, all posted to the losses of other business 390 million.

After cooperating with car companies, the partners can not only share the investment pressure, but also increase the number of power exchange services per day at the power exchange station, improving the scale effect. Next, Li Bin also said that the possibility of independent financing of the power exchange business cannot be ruled out.

After rationally allocating non-core businesses, NIO also has more resources in the main automotive industry. Recently, it was reported that NIO has obtained independent production qualifications. If the news is true, it means that NIO’s seven-year OEM route has come to an end and it has become the last car company in the new force to obtain independent car manufacturing qualifications.

Not surprisingly, after obtaining the production qualification, it will be beneficial to the efficiency of NIO’s business. According to Li Bin, after purchasing the Jianghuai production line, the cost of independent production will decrease by 10%, and the gross profit margin of automobiles will continue to increase, reaching 15% in the fourth quarter.

Although NIO itself has started to learn to save money and is getting better and better, it is also facing new industry challenges.

03 The industry collectively sprints towards high-end cars.NIO faces new pressure

In NIO’s plan, the goal is to be China’s BBA and dominate the domestic high-end pure electric market for a long time. From the current point of view, this goal is progressing smoothly. From January to May this year, NIO’s market share of high-end pure electric vehicles with an average transaction price of more than 300,000 yuan reached 55.8%.

Although the performance is good, it may be difficult for NIO to continue to increase its share. Due to the different operating habits and aesthetic styles of consumers, cars are highly differentiated products. Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, has a market share of only 11%.

From the current point of view, NIO’s share in the high-end pure electric market has declined. In October, NIO’s share in the high-end pure electric car market above 300,000 yuan was 45.6%, a significant decrease from the first five months of this year. Another signal of bottleneck in the penetration rate of NIO’s high-end cars is that NIO will launch two sub-brands, Alps and Firefly, focusing on the market below 300,000 yuan.

At the same time, the new energy automobile industry has also begun to sprint to the high end collectively. According to later reports, next year, Ideal, Huawei, JK and other brands will launch products on the market with prices of 300,000 yuan and above.

In January next year, Xiaopeng MPV new car – Xiaopeng X9 with a pre-sale price of 388,000 began to be delivered to users. In the third quarter of this year, Xiaopeng bicycles cost an average of 196,000 yuan. In late February next year, the ideal first pure electric car priced close to the ideal Mega of 600,000 will also be delivered to users.

Interestingly, the timing of competing for high-end cars is precisely the empty window period for NIO products. NIO will not have new cars on sale until the second half of next year, and can only rely on the current eight cars on the NT 2 platform to sell. And two of the so-called main models – ET 5 and the new ES 6 – have obvious sales weakness. The fourth quarter sales guidance given by NIO 4.7-4 9,000, and it also shows a month-on-month downward trend. Before the second half of next year, NIO will only rely on stock car sales to deal with new high-end cars from brands such as Ideal and Xiaopeng. This means that the competitive pressure of NIO will increase unprecedented.

Although the unit price of NIO customers is higher, due to the crude development of NIO in the past, the gross profit margin of NIO is only 11%, coupled with the service business that has not been able to achieve profit returns, the overall gross profit margin of NIO is only 8%, which lags behind the gross profit margin of most mainstream new energy vehicle companies. Once NIO’s high-end market position is shaken, NIO will gradually lose its room to move around in the industry.

This also means that the danger of NIO is still not over. In the ever-fierce competition of high-end cars in 2024, NIO will enter a new round of life and death test.

Appearance is the primary reason why I chose this car. The family-style design style has been upgraded on the basis of the past, and Geely’s personality is more distinct. The intricate and orderly line grille is finely connected with the headlights, which effectively strengthens the horizontal visual tension, and the side skirt is finely handled, which contributes to the overall beauty of Geely Jiaji. Compared with the appearance, the gap is obvious. I am more satisfied with the appearance and interior of Geely Jiaji. The design style of the center console and buttons is fashionable and forward-flowing, which makes people overjoyed. Soft materials are everywhere they can touch, and the details are properly handled. In addition, metal keys and painted decorative boards are used to further improve the layering. Compared with the interior of Toyota Highlander, Geely Jiaji’s simplicity, generosity and sense of grade appeal to me more. The seat enjoys a strong wrapping, and passengers will not feel obviously tilted when turning. To be honest, compared with Toyota Highlander, Geely Jiaji’s interior looks much higher.

In the interior, the new Jiaji adopts Geely’s brand-new family-style design language, and the layout of the whole car tends to be simple at home. The 10.25-inch high-definition central control screen, cool LCD dashboard and damping physical buttons are all very scientific and technological, and the three styles are not absent. The overall interior design is very in line with the aesthetic needs of young people.

The length, width and height are 4826×1909×1695mm respectively, and the wheelbase has reached 2805 mm. In the same class, Jiaji’s wheelbase ranks fifth. This size exceeds most models in its class. The actual interior space performance is also very good. From the actual ride experience, the front and rear rows are relatively spacious. Jiaji Jiaji L 1.5T skylights provide a wider view, which can create a better visual environment and good sensitivity for the rear passengers and increase the light intake for the whole vehicle. Spatial performance is limited by vehicle positioning, and the performance is acceptable, and the flatness is no problem, but the total space is average.

Jiaji Jiaji L 1.5T distinguished model adopts 1.5 engine, with maximum horsepower of 181 and peak torque of 290, which is matched with wet dual clutch (DCT) gearbox. It will definitely bring unforgettable control charm. Ranked 7 th among 80,000-120,000 models.

Jiaji’s active/passive safety configuration is complete, includingAutomatic parking、Zero tire pressure endurance tire、Automatic parking、Steep slope descent、hill start assist control、knee airbag、HUD head-up display、Anti-lock braking (ABS)、Braking force distribution (EBD/CBC, etc.)、Brake assist (EBA/BAS, etc.)、Traction control (ASR/TCS, etc.)、Active noise reduction、Engine start and stop、Side safety air curtain、Wireless charging of mobile phone、night vision system、LED daytime running lights、Forward reversing radar、Tire pressure monitoring、Steering wheel heating、Body stability control (ESP/DSC, etc.)、Rear reversing radar、Fatigue reminder、Remote parking、Child seat interface、Lane keeping (LKAS)Equal configuration.

Among them,Automatic parkingYou can avoid stepping on the brakes for a long time or needing to pull frequently;Steep slope descentCan safely pass through steep slope road conditions at low speed;knee airbagReduce the injury of the car interior to the occupant’s knees in the secondary collision.

In addition to the above description, we can also go to the Easy Car Forum to browse more real car feedback from actual buyers, or use our experience.