分类： hyjhfdfgd

CCTV News:Recently, some media reported that hepatitis C infection broke out in hemodialysis patients in Dongtai People’s Hospital of Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province. Today (27th), Dongtai Municipal People’s Government responded to this matter.

According to the report of Dongtai Municipal People’s Government, on May 13th, Dongtai Municipal Health and Health Commission received a report from the Municipal People’s Hospital that hepatitis C antibody was newly positive among hemodialysis patients in the blood purification center of the hospital, and it was suspected that nosocomial infection occurred.

The State, Jiangsu Province and Yancheng Health and Health Commission organized an expert group to the scene to guide the investigation and handling. After screening and testing of all hemodialysis patients, 69 cases of hepatitis C virus infection were diagnosed and confirmed. According to the investigation of the expert group, this incident is an nosocomial infection incident caused by the inadequate implementation of the hospital nosocomial infection management system.

Inadequate management leads to nosocomial infection.

On May 13th, a patient with positive hepatitis C antibody was found in the blood purification center of Dongtai People’s Hospital, and then the hospital screened 161 patients undergoing hemodialysis treatment in the hospital. After the screening on May 16th, it was found that 69 people were infected with hepatitis C virus, including 50 males and 19 females, the oldest being 77 years old and the youngest being 26 years old. On the 16th, Dongtai Health Construction Committee reported the situation to Yancheng Health Construction Committee. In the evening, Jiangsu Province and Yancheng City organized 15 experts to station in Dongtai People’s Hospital to carry out investigation and disposal. On the 19th, the National Health Construction Committee sent an expert group to Dongtai.

After consultation with the members of the expert group, on May 17th, the treatment plan for 69 infected people was determined. Specific measures were taken to treat 69 infected people with antiviral drugs. Among them, 11 patients with transaminase higher than 200 were admitted to hospital. Another 58 people received outpatient treatment. The expenses incurred during this period shall be borne by the hospital. According to Chu Xudong, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of Dongtai People’s Hospital, the 69 infected people are in stable condition and have no adverse reactions during taking the medicine.

According to Cao Guoping, chief of the medical and political department of Dongtai Health Construction Committee, it was confirmed by the expert group that the main reasons for the incident were the disinfection of the hands of medical staff, the disinfection of related equipment used during dialysis, and the irregular implementation of disinfection measures in dialysis areas.

The second reason is that the human resource allocation in the hemodialysis room is insufficient. According to industry regulations, each nursing staff is generally responsible for the operation of six dialysis machines, but in actual work, each nursing staff in this hospital is responsible for the operation of at least nine machines.

The third reason is that the hemodialysis isolation zone of hepatitis C patients in the hemodialysis room of this hospital has the problem of sharing channels with the normal dialysis zone.

In the end, the expert group composed of the state, province and city found that this incident was an nosocomial infection incident caused by the inadequate implementation of the hospital nosocomial infection management system.

According to the requirements of the national, provincial and Yancheng Health and Health Commission, Dongtai City is organizing a special inspection of nosocomial risk in the whole city to further standardize the diagnosis and treatment behavior, and ordered Dongtai People’s Hospital to quickly implement the rectification plan according to the opinions of the expert group, aiming at the existing problems, and rectify it within a time limit.

Sixteen responsible persons were held accountable.

At the same time, 16 responsible persons were seriously held accountable.

Give Zhu Fabing, director of the Medical Affairs Department of Yancheng Health and Health Commission, an admonishing conversation;

Ma Fan, deputy director of the Medical Affairs Department of Yancheng Health and Health Commission, was given an administrative warning;

Sun Yanchun, deputy mayor of Dongtai Municipal People’s Government, reminded the conversation to be handled;

Cui haijie, director of Dongtai health and health commission, talked with him;

Chen Zhang, deputy director of Dongtai Health and Health Commission, was given an administrative warning;

Cao Guoping, chief of the medical and political department of Dongtai Health Construction Committee, was given an administrative warning;

Yin Weiguo, secretary of the Party Committee and president of Dongtai People’s Hospital, and Song Xiaoping, vice president in charge, were dismissed and given different degrees of punishment to other responsible persons.

Recently, Zhou Hongyi of 360 said."GPT6 to GPT8 artificial intelligence will generate consciousness and become a new species.In the future, the artificial intelligence big language model may realize self-evolution, automatic system updating and self-upgrading, or exponential evolution ability, and human beings will face unpredictable security challenges. "

Zhou Hongyi, as a "master of tuyeres", has to get involved in almost every tuyere. What he said is somewhat credible, and it is necessary to make a big question mark.

Moreover, Zhou Hongyi only gave a prediction, but did not give his own reasons and reasoning logic.

As a media that focuses on the depth of the industry, we should not stay on the slogan of the headline party, but analyze the problem from a deeper level.

Will GPT grow into a general artificial intelligence model? If so, how long will this process take? Next, we try to discuss this disturbing problem together.

To answer this question, we need to "tear down" a big model like GPT and see what is inside it and how it works.

"Unpack" the black box of the big model

Large model refers to a neural network model with a very large number of parameters, which is usually used to deal with complex natural language processing, image recognition, speech recognition and other tasks. The core elements of the large model are mainly neural network, layer, neuron and parameters.

Data ape mapping

neural network

Neural network is a machine learning algorithm, which is inspired by the nervous system of human brain. It consists of multiple layers, each layer contains multiple neurons, and the connections between layers form a neural network. Each neuron receives the input from the neuron in the upper layer, calculates the output according to its input, and then passes it on to the next layer.

floor

Layer is a part of neural network, which is composed of multiple neurons. Each layer can be configured with different parameters such as activation function and optimizer. Usually, each layer will transform the input and then pass the output to the next layer. Common layers include fully connected layer, convolution layer, pooling layer, etc. The basis for dividing different types of layers is mainly the type of data processed, the internal structure of layers, the functions of layers, etc. For example, the fully connected layer is the simplest and most commonly used layer in neural networks. Its core function is to connect all neurons in the upper layer with all neurons in this layer. This connection allows the neural network to learn the complex nonlinear relationship of input data. Fully connected layer is usually used for image classification, speech recognition, natural language processing and other tasks; Convolution layer is the core layer of Convolution Neural Network (CNN), which is used to process data with spatial structure, such as images. Its core function is to perform convolution operation on the input data through a set of learnable convolution kernels to extract the features of the input data. The internal structure of convolution layer includes several convolution kernels and a bias term, and the output of convolution layer is usually input into pooling layer.

neuron

Neurons are the basic units in neural networks,Its main function is to receive signals from neurons in the input layer or the previous layer and generate output signals. The inputs of neurons are transmitted through a set of weighted connections and are weighted and summed in neurons. Then, this sum is input into the activation function for nonlinear transformation to produce the output of neurons.

The core of neuron is activation function, which is the core component of neuron processing input signal. Neurons receive input signals, sum them with weights, and then input them into the activation function for nonlinear transformation.The function of activation function is to introduce nonlinear factors into neurons, so that neurons can learn nonlinear models, thus improving the expression ability of models.

parameter

Parameters refer to variables in the neural network, which will be updated with the training of the neural network.Each neuron has a weight vector and an offset term, which are usually called parameters.The values of these parameters will be updated by the optimizer during training to make the output of the neural network as close as possible to the expected output.

To sum up, neurons are components of layers, and layers are components of neural networks. Parameters are stored in neurons, and each neuron has a set of parameters (weights and offsets). During the training process, the optimizer will update these parameters to make the output of the neural network as close as possible to the expected output.

So, how do neural networks, layers, neurons and parameters work systematically?

Next, we take the training process of GPT-4 as an example to illustrate the cooperation process of different elements in the training process of large model, specifically:

1) Firstly, all parameters of GPT-4 model are randomly initialized, including the weight and deviation of each neuron in the neural network.

2) Prepare data sets, which can be marked texts, such as articles, novels, papers, social media posts, etc. Before training, data must be preprocessed and cleaned up, such as deleting special characters, stop words and other irrelevant information.

3) Training data will be divided into several small batches, usually each batch contains hundreds to thousands of text samples. Input each batch into GPT-4 model, and the model will calculate the output according to the current parameters, that is, predict the probability distribution of the next word.

4) Calculate the loss function of the model, which can reflect the performance of the model on the training set. In the case of language model, cross entropy is usually used as the loss function.

5) Calculate the gradient of parameters according to the backpropagation algorithm, and the gradient reflects the change rate of the loss function of the model at a certain point. Then use the optimizer to update the parameters of the model to reduce the loss function.

6) Repeat steps 3-5 until the performance of the model reaches the expectation or the training time is exhausted.

Kind of like the human brain.

From the above analysis, we can see that the big model is trying to simulate the working mechanism of the human brain. In fact, at present, human beings are the only intelligent creatures. If a large model is as intelligent as human beings, "bionic" is the best way.

Next, let’s briefly sort out the structure and working mechanism of the human brain, and then compare the structure and working mechanism of the big model with that of the human brain.

Let’s first look at the structure of the human brain.

The human brain is a neural network system composed of tens of billions of neurons, and neurons are the basic units of neural networks. Each neuron is connected with each other by synapses, which are the basic channels for transmitting information between neurons.

The core function of neurons is to receive, process and transmit information.A neuron usually consists of three parts: cell body, dendrite and axon.Neurons receive signals from other neurons and transmit them to the cell body through dendrites. The cell body processes these signals and generates output signals, which are transmitted to other neurons through axons.

The connection between neurons is usually realized through synapses. Synapses are divided into chemical synapses and electrical synapses. Chemical synapses transmit signals through neurotransmitters, while electrical synapses transmit information directly through electrical signals.

The human brain is composed of a large number of neurons and synapses, which are connected together according to specific laws to form different neural circuits and neural networks. These neural circuits and neural networks work together to complete various complex cognitive, perceptual, emotional and behavioral activities of the human body.

Through the above analysis, we can make an analogy between the human brain and various elements of the big model, as shown in the following table:

The layer in the big model can be compared with the cortex in the human brain.The layer of the large model is composed of several neurons, each neuron receives the output of the previous layer as input, and calculates it through the activation function to produce the output of this layer. The cerebral cortex is a complex network composed of neurons and synapses, in which each neuron also receives the output of other neurons as input, and transmits and processes information at synapses through chemical signals.

Neurons in the large model can be compared with neurons in the human brain.They are the basic computing units in the network, which receive input signals and process them through activation functions to generate output signals. Neurons in the human brain are the basic computing units in organisms. They connect with other neurons through synapses, receive chemical signals from other neurons, and generate output signals through electrical signals.

The parameters of the large model can be compared with the synaptic weights in the human brain, which determine the intensity and mode of information transmission between neurons. Synaptic weights in the human brain also play a similar role, which determines the connection strength between neurons and the signal transmission mode at synapses.

Quantitative comparison between large model and human brain

The above is only from a qualitative point of view, to understand the big model, the working mechanism of the human brain, and to make an analogy to their core elements.

Quantitative change leads to qualitative change, even if it is similar in structure, but the difference in quantity often leads to great difference.

Next, let’s compare the big model with the human brain from a quantitative point of view.

The following are the approximate values of the total number of neural layers and parameters of GPT-1 to GPT-3.5 models (the number of neurons is not disclosed, and GPT-4 does not disclose relevant data):

Then, let’s look at the number of neurons and synapses in the human brain. In order to make the results more referential, besides humans, we also selected monkeys, dolphins, cats and ants. The specific results are as follows:

From the above analysis, we know that the neurons of the large model can be classified as human neurons, and the parameters of the large model can be classified as synapses of the human brain. But unfortunately, the big models in the industry rarely disclose the number of neurons, but generally disclose the size of parameters. Therefore, we compare the parameter scale of GPT series large models with the synaptic scale of human, monkey, dolphin and cat brains:

From the above table, it can be seen that the "intelligence" level of GPT-3.5 has fallen within the intelligence range of monkeys, which is 285.7-2857 times worse than that of human beings.

On the other hand, from the evolution speed of GPT itself, the parameter scale can be increased by two orders of magnitude in the first two iterations, but after GPT-3, the speed of parameter scale increase is greatly reduced. Assuming that the parameter scale of GPT will increase by five times in each iteration, after five iterations (the fifth power of five is 3125), that is, GPT-9, its "intelligence level" may catch up with human beings.

Of course, the above inference is only a simple model, and there is an assumption that the intelligence level is positively related to the size of synapses (parameters). But whether this hypothesis can be established needs a big question mark.

Compared with synapses, neurons are a better indicator of intelligence. Judging from the current situation, the information processing ability of the activation function of the large model is far weaker than that of human brain neurons. The activation function of large model neurons is relatively simple. For example, the neurons of Sigmoid activation function have a smooth S-shaped curve in the output range, which can realize tasks such as binary classification, and the neurons of ReLU activation function have nonlinear modified linear properties. Relatively speaking,The neuron of the human brain is a biological cell, and its information processing ability is definitely far beyond a simple mathematical function. Therefore, even if the number of neurons in the large model catches up with the level of the human brain and reaches hundreds of billions (the corresponding parameter scale exceeds 1000 trillion), its intelligence level cannot be compared with that of the human brain.

In addition, the neural network of the large model can be compared with the neural network of the human brain, but their implementation methods are completely different. The neural network of large model simulates the connection and information transmission between neurons through mathematical model, while the neural network of human brain is a complex structure composed of neurons, synapses and other biological elements. In addition,The connections between neurons in the neural network of human brain are very complicated, and they can freely establish, dismantle and adjust the connections, while the neural network of large model is set in advance.

At present, human beings are still relatively "safe". But let’s not forget,The size of neurons in the human brain is almost constant, while the size of neurons and parameters in the large model is increasing exponentially.According to this trend, it may be only a matter of time before the intelligence level of large models catches up with human beings.

Hinton, a great god in the field of artificial intelligence, said, "The development of general artificial intelligence is much faster than people think. Until recently, I thought it would take about 20-50 years for us to realize universal artificial intelligence. Now, the realization of general artificial intelligence may take 20 years or less. "

In the face of general artificial intelligence or even super artificial intelligence, human psychology is complex. On the one hand, it is hoped that there will be more intelligent systems to help mankind complete more work and liberate productive forces; On the other hand, I am afraid to open Pandora’s box and release a monster more terrible than nuclear weapons.

I hope that even if we create a "god", it will be a god full of love, not a god who regards human beings as ants!

Text: A misty rain/data ape

1905 movie network news A comedy blockbuster starring Ge You, Yun-peng Yue and Du Chun, and co-starring Charlene Choi, Bao Beier, Xiao Shenyang, Michael Chen, Pan Binlong, Rayza, Sun Yue and Lu Xing will be released on December 29th. Recently, the film released a set of themed stills entitled "Good Brothers", revealing the character characteristics and personalities played by the three leading actors Ge You, Yun-peng Yue and Du Chun in the film, showing the deep friendship between the three brothers who won the "treasure" and suggesting that they are about to embark on a "surprise" adventure after getting drunk.

Yun-peng Yue tried his best to make a water play. Du Chun became the first producer to subvert the image.

The film "Lost Treasure in a Dangerous Way" tells the story that Uncle Ya (Ge You), a fisherman, A Le (Yun-peng Yue), and Daimeng (Du Chun) of the Aquarium mistakenly sell the star dolphin "Baby" of the Aquarium to foreign countries after a drunkenness. In order to find the baby dolphin, the three of them have to embark on a wonderful adventure.

For many years, Ge You has been playing all kinds of little people’s images on the big screen. This time, he returned to the stage of the New Year film after two years, and played an uncle selling fish in the film, with one move and one style. It is his approachable and life-oriented performances that have given these little characters vivid and vivid "excellent" comedy characteristics for many years, and they are well-deserved "the first person to celebrate the New Year". As the eldest brother of the "Fragment Trio", Uncle Ge is both the backbone and an unexpected reversal. Especially in a stills exposed this time, Ge You is riding a tricycle carrying fish and looks like he is running away. Yun-peng Yue and Du Chun try to stop him in a hurry, and the relationship is very subtle.

As a popular comedy hero on the big screen in recent years, Yun-peng Yue admits that he is absolutely glad you came in this film. Whether in or out of the play, Ge You benefited him a lot: "Uncle Ge’s seriousness about the role and his control over the characters let me know what a real old play bone is." This time, Yun-peng Yue plays a dolphin trainer, who has a lot of intimate scenes with dolphins in the water, but he is not very good at water. In order to present the best effect, we have to do our best to cooperate with our colleagues in Diaoweiya, and we have suffered a lot by repeatedly going out into the water.

Du Chun, who has just performed well in I am an Actor, has another identity besides being one of the three leading roles, that is, one of the producers and project sponsors of this film. Starting from the point of "fragment" after drinking, he came up with this story that is very suitable for the life of young people and particularly embarrassing. At first, he was very worried about whether Grandpa Ge could accept it. To his surprise, after receiving the script, Ge You quickly liked and accepted the project. In order to subvert the image of "tough guy" in the past, Du Chun started from the image, covered his tough facial edges with a curly hair, and endowed the character with the image characteristics of being a cute doormat.

The broken trio "grabbed the baby" brothers deeply turned over the film, and the fans said that they had new expectations at the end of the year.

Once released last week, the preview and poster of "Drunk Big Edition" aroused great expectations of the audience on all major platforms. "I didn’t expect to see the collocation of Uncle Ge and Little PINKRAY  in my lifetime." Some viewers also said that "I like this theme, and I feel that I have never seen Uncle Ge play such a role before. Coupled with PINKRAY ‘s signature expression and Du Chun’s high face value, this combination is amazing." At the same time, I also have a clear understanding of the comedy positioning of the film. "Comedy is a big coffee. … Comedy makes you laugh is a good film! " People are full of expectations for its performance in the 2019 Lunar New Year!

No matter in or out of the play, Ge You, Yun-peng Yue and Du Chun, the "broken trio", all showed super concentration and serious performance attitude, which is an excellent interpretation of brothers’ affection. It is reported that the three of them will encounter all kinds of strange things along the way, face many crises, and even face the human challenge of "brothers or banknotes". Exactly where the three will go, we have to find the answer from the movie.

The movie "Lost Treasure by Dangerous Road" will be turned over on December 29th, and will land in major theaters all over the country.

　　The article brought to you in this issue is about soda music. Do you know where the soda music is set? The following small series tells you how to find the setting of soda music. Let’s take a look at it below.

　　Where is the soda music set? How to find the setting for soda music.

　　First, click [My] in the lower right corner of the soda music software page;

　　The icon in the upper right corner of my page is Settings.

　　The above is the whole content of how to find the setting of soda music. Please pay attention to IT Encyclopedia for more exciting tutorials!

　　Under the background of stable macroeconomic operation, China’s agricultural and rural reform and development have achieved remarkable results, and the role of agriculture as a ballast stone for economic and social development has become increasingly significant. This report reviews the development of China’s agriculture and rural areas in 2021, analyzes the important opportunities and challenges faced in 2022, and predicts its development trend. On this basis, it puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions based on the hot issues that need attention in the process of agricultural and rural economic and social development.

　　Agriculture grew steadily and grain reached a new high.

　　2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". China has overcome the adverse effects of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complicated international economic situation, the overall economy has recovered, agriculture has continued to maintain high-quality and steady development, farmers’ living standards have been continuously improved, and the rural landscape has been further improved.

　　The agricultural economy grew steadily and the grain output reached a new high. In 2021, the added value of the primary industry increased by 7.1% over the previous year, reaching 8,308.6 billion yuan, accounting for 7.26% of the GDP, which was lower than that in 2020. In the first three quarters, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery reached 9,286.34 billion yuan. Among them, the total output value of agriculture is 4,667.11 billion yuan, the total output value of forestry is 384.13 billion yuan, the total output value of animal husbandry is 2,832.90 billion yuan, and the total output value of fishery is 912.96 billion yuan.

　　The comprehensive agricultural production capacity has been continuously improved, and the production of important agricultural products such as grain has made steady progress. In 2021, 100 million mu of high-standard farmland was built nationwide, and the mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvest exceeded 72%, of which the comprehensive mechanization rate of wheat cultivation and harvest reached over 95%. The national total grain output reached a new high, reaching 1,365.7 billion Jin, an increase of 26.7 billion Jin over the previous year and a year-on-year increase of 2%. It remained above 1.3 trillion Jin for seven consecutive years, achieving "18 consecutive years of prosperity". The national grain planting area was 1.764 billion mu, an increase of 12.95 million mu over the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, which maintained the growth trend for two consecutive years.

　　The agricultural product market operated smoothly, and the producer price dropped slightly. Basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of rations are the general pattern of grain supply and demand. Judging from the market situation of major cereals, the supply and demand of wheat and rice are basically stable, and the domestic supply of corn presents a certain gap. With the increasing demand for meat, eggs, milk and other products, the demand for feed grain represented by corn is also increasing. In addition, corn is still in the critical period of agricultural production structure adjustment. To some extent, China still needs to increase the import of corn and feed grain to meet the demand. Generally speaking, China’s annual rice imports account for about 2% of domestic production, wheat imports account for about 6% of domestic production, and corn imports account for about 10% of domestic production. Grain imports mainly play a role in meeting differentiated needs.

　　In terms of livestock products, the production capacity of live pigs has fully recovered, and the supply of pork market is relatively sufficient in 2021. Especially since last October, the orderly development of the second round of central and local reserve meat storage has played an important role in ensuring the stability of the pork market and the interests of aquaculture enterprises.

　　In 2021, the producer price of agricultural products fell by 2.2%. The overall price of grain increased greatly, reaching 13.8%, among which wheat and rice increased slightly, 6.6% and 1.9% respectively, while corn increased by 25.5%. The overall price of livestock products decreased by 17.9% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in the price of live pigs, which decreased by 35.1%; However, the prices of cattle, sheep and eggs have increased in different proportions, among which the price of eggs has increased by 15.5%, which is higher than that of cattle and sheep.

　　Farmers’ income and consumption increased rapidly.

　　Farmers’ income grew steadily, and consumption increased steadily. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 18,931 yuan, a real increase of 9.7% after deducting the price factor, which was 2.6 percentage points faster than that of urban residents. From the perspective of income composition, farmers’ income mainly includes wage income, net operating income, net transfer income and net property income. In the first three quarters of 2021, the four types of income all increased. Among them, wage income is the largest source of farmers’ income, which is 6325 yuan, with a nominal increase of 15.3%, accounting for 46.1% of farmers’ disposable income; The net operating income is 4042 yuan, with a nominal increase of 6.7%, accounting for 29.4%, which is the second largest source of farmers’ income; The net transfer income reached 3002 yuan, a nominal increase of 11%, accounting for 21.9%; The net income of property was 357 yuan, with a nominal increase of 10.7%, accounting for 2.6%.

　　In the first three quarters of 2021, the per capita consumption of rural residents was 4.7 percentage points higher than that of urban residents, and there was still a gap between the consumption level of rural residents and urban residents. In the expenditure structure of rural residents, the consumption of basic necessities such as food, clothing, housing and so on has grown steadily, among which the per capita expenditure on food, alcohol and tobacco accounts for 32% and the per capita expenditure on housing accounts for 21%. Due to the scientific coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in various regions and departments, the impact of the epidemic has been basically overcome. Consumer spending on services and other supplies has shown a rapid growth trend throughout the year, but it has not yet recovered to the same level in 2019.

　　The level of rural informatization has improved rapidly, and agricultural production has started to be digitized. The COVID-19 epidemic has made the role of rural e-commerce more prominent. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at present, the coverage rate of administrative villages of e-commerce service stations in China is about 80%, and the online retail sales of agricultural products in counties exceed 300 billion yuan, which is growing rapidly. Relevant research shows that the number of Taobao villages has exceeded 7000 in 2021. The overall promotion of rural revitalization will accelerate the popularization and sinking of digital technology and accelerate the digitalization of rural industries. In the field of smart agriculture, the digitalization of agricultural production is in the ascendant, and the construction of the whole industrial chain of single product big data, such as oil, natural rubber, cotton, soybeans and other products, has started, and the application fields of big data systems have been continuously expanded.

　　The reform of rural collective property rights has completed the phased task, and the collective economy has become a new growth point. The task of rural collective property rights reform has been basically completed nationwide, and rural asset resources have been greatly revitalized through measures such as clearing assets, defining members, quantifying operating assets and establishing economic (stock economy) cooperatives. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, by 2021, nearly 900,000 collective economic organizations at the township, village and group levels have been established in China, and the collective book assets have been checked and verified to be 7.7 trillion yuan (excluding resource assets such as land), including 3.5 trillion yuan of operating assets. The endogenous kinetic energy of rural development has been significantly improved, and the collective economy has become a new growth point, laying a solid foundation for achieving the goal of common prosperity.

　　The pressure of farmland protection has increased.

　　During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the key and difficult points of China’s economic and social development are still "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", and the potential stamina is also "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". In the face of the unprecedented changes in the world in the past century, China’s agricultural and rural development is facing new opportunities.

　　The steady macroeconomic recovery has provided a good environment for China’s agricultural economic development. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund estimate that the growth rate of China in 2022 will exceed the world average and developed economies. Domestic consumption is also gradually recovering. If the epidemic can be completely ended in 2022, domestic consumption will be revived and the economic growth rate is expected to return to the pre-epidemic level.

　　The further deepening of international cooperation provides an opportunity for the development of international trade in agricultural products. The "Belt and Road Initiative" has brought great impetus to China’s agricultural international cooperation. In the first half of 2021, the trade volume of goods between China and countries along the Belt and Road reached 5.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, which was higher than the overall growth rate of China’s foreign trade, accounting for 29.6% of the total foreign trade. Among them, agricultural trade accounts for about a quarter of the total trade. RCEP (Agreement on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), which came into effect on January 1st, 2022, will undoubtedly provide new opportunities for China to expand international cooperation in agricultural economy and trade.

　　With the promotion of rural revitalization strategy, the pattern of giving priority to agricultural and rural development has gradually taken shape. Infrastructure construction is speeding up again, and government investment and social capital will be invested more in agriculture and rural areas for land, water conservancy, seeds, digitalization, logistics facilities, especially cold chain construction.

　　Agricultural and rural development also faces several challenges.

　　Ensuring the quantity and quality of cultivated land is still a great challenge for China’s economic development at present. At present, the cultivated land in China is about 1.92 billion mu, which is 113 million mu less than the 2.03 billion mu cultivated land in the second national land survey 10 years ago. In addition, China’s urbanization continues, the ecological environment pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the pressure on cultivated land protection is increasing. To ensure food security, while keeping the red line of cultivated land firmly and ensuring the area of cultivated land, more effective measures should be taken to resolutely stop the "non-agricultural" and prevent the "non-grain" of cultivated land.

　　The overall cost of agricultural products is increasing, but the price of agricultural products is weak or fluctuates greatly. Since the new century, China’s agriculture has gradually entered a high-cost stage. From the perspective of planting industry, the cost of agricultural input and labor input is increasing, which has seriously affected farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain. Land rents are also rising. According to the survey of major grain producing areas, the land rent in Northeast China ranges from 500 yuan/mu to 600 yuan/mu, while in central provinces it ranges from 400 yuan/mu to 600 yuan/mu, while in some eastern coastal provinces the average land rent reaches about 1000 yuan/mu, which further squeezes the profit space of transferring land management rights to grow grain.

　　The relationship between supply and demand of important agricultural products is in a tight balance. Soybean still needs to rely on imports to meet the demand. In 2021, soybean imports will account for nearly 60% of the total grain imports, but the rations are absolutely safe.

　　It is worth noting that there is still great uncertainty in the international environment, and the protectionist policies of developed countries are on the rise repeatedly, which poses certain challenges to China’s food security and sustainable agricultural development.

　　It should also be noted that China’s urbanization is still continuing, and the population is accelerating to gather in major developed areas. At present, the resident population in cities and towns has exceeded 900 million. The resident population in rural areas continues to decrease, and the aging trend is still intensifying, which will be an important problem that must be solved in rural revitalization in the future. In recent years, the income gap between urban and rural areas in China has been narrowing, but the per capita disposable income of rural residents still lags behind that of urban residents. In 2021, the income ratio between urban and rural residents was 2.50, which was lower than the previous year, but the absolute value of the income gap between urban and rural areas was still 28,481 yuan. The reality that the income gap in rural areas has not been significantly alleviated will also affect the realization of the goal of common prosperity.

　　The momentum of sustained and rapid development in 2022

　　Combined with the employment population and social fixed assets investment in agriculture, industry, agricultural products processing and service industries in the last 10 years from 2011 to 2020, a prediction model was established according to the latest input-output table of 135 departments in China, and the report results were simply averaged by setting different simulation schemes, so as to judge the development trend of agriculture and rural areas in China in 2022 as follows.

　　It is expected that the economy will continue to grow. In 2021, China actively responded to the impact of the epidemic, and GDP growth exceeded the pre-epidemic level, from recovery to high-quality growth. It is estimated that the contribution of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry to GDP will reach 0.4%, 1.9% and 2.8% respectively when the economic growth rate exceeds 5.0% in 2022.

　　It is estimated that the growth rate of agricultural added value will be 5.67%, maintaining a rapid and stable growth rate. The proportion of agricultural added value has increased, which may reach about 8%. The added value of processing industries (grain grinding products, feed processed products, vegetable oil processed products, sugar materials and sugar products, meat processed products, aquatic products processed products, vegetables and fruits processed products, dairy products and tea) with main agricultural products as raw materials will continue to grow, with the growth rate reaching about 3.0%, accounting for about 1.6% of GDP.

　　It is estimated that the trade volume of agricultural products will reach US$ 350 billion, of which the export volume of agricultural products will reach US$ 80.7 billion and the trade deficit of agricultural products will reach US$ 188.6 billion, up nearly 40% year-on-year. Imports of edible oil seeds, edible vegetable oils and livestock products account for about 50% of domestic agricultural products imports.

　　It is estimated that per capita disposable income will exceed 40,000 yuan, including 20,300 yuan in rural per capita disposable income, which is estimated to increase by 8% year-on-year, 2 percentage points higher than that of urban residents. It is estimated that the per capita consumption expenditure of residents will be 24,000 yuan in 2022, an increase of 5.3% over 2021; The average consumption expenditure of rural residents is about 15,000 yuan, an increase of 6.8% over 2021 and 2.4 percentage points higher than that of urban residents.

　　On the whole, it is predicted that the development of agriculture and rural areas in China will be faster than other departments in 2022, the strategy of giving priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas will continue to advance steadily, and the gap between urban and rural areas will be further narrowed. However, while maintaining optimism, we should also have psychological preparation and coping strategies for two situations. First, the COVID-19 epidemic has not been eliminated, especially the global spread is still continuing; Second, the long-term slowdown in economic growth has become a subject that must be faced after the new normal of the economy.

　　Hold the bottom line and achieve the set goals

　　In the next few years, the development policy of China’s agriculture and rural areas will still be to maintain stability and strive for progress. In 2022, the bottom line that agricultural and rural work must keep is to stabilize grain, increase oil and protect cultivated land, and there will be no large-scale return to poverty. In order to actively respond to the challenges faced in the development process and achieve the established goals, the following layout can be made in a targeted manner.

　　First, strengthen the construction of high-standard farmland and continuously improve the level of improved agricultural varieties. It is necessary to fulfill the task of ensuring the supply of primary products proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference and ensure that Chinese’s rice bowl is firmly in its own hands at all times.

　　First, we must accelerate the pace of high-standard farmland construction and stick to the bottom line of grain production. In recent years, remarkable achievements have been made in the construction of high-standard farmland in China. It is estimated that 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland will be built by 2022, so as to achieve a stable guarantee of grain production capacity of more than 1 trillion Jin. At the central level, the subsidy funds for farmland construction should gradually tilt to the main grain producing areas, and the grain production in various places should be taken as an important reference for the allocation of funds, so as to ensure stable and high yield in the main grain producing areas with high-standard farmland; In the process of implementation in various places, we can flexibly adopt a variety of subsidies and incentives to guide the investment of financial, social capital and new agricultural business entities, and at the same time establish and improve the participation mechanism of farmers to mobilize their enthusiasm for farmland construction and protection.

　　Second, we must constantly improve the level of improved agricultural varieties. By the beginning of 2021, China has 520,000 germplasm resources, making it the second largest country in the world. At present, the planting area of self-bred varieties accounts for more than 95%, and the two major grain crops, rice and wheat, are completely self-sufficient, so that China has achieved China varieties for grain, and the safety of agricultural varieties in China is generally guaranteed. On the one hand, we should continue to promote the cooperation among scientific research institutions, seed enterprises and agricultural management entities, and accelerate the cultivation and marketing of improved varieties. On the other hand, we should continue to increase support for seed production counties and regional seed breeding bases, support local governments to create modern agricultural industrial parks focusing on seed industry, improve the modernization level of the industrial chain of the base, and increase seed production capacity.

　　The third is to guide the increase of soybean and oil crops. It is necessary to guide and encourage farmers to increase production of soybeans and oil crops in light of the current domestic demand for agricultural products. In the main producing areas of soybean and oil crops, subsidies are given to agricultural production links and credit insurance and other services are provided in combination with local financial conditions.

　　Second, develop and expand the new rural collective economy to increase farmers’ income. As an important support for rural modernization and common prosperity, the new rural collective economy helps to attract young and middle-aged laborers to return, improve the property income of rural residents, and then narrow the income gap and promote the development of rural industries.

　　First, we should base ourselves on our own advantages and revitalize idle resources. Villages in all regions should make full use of local superior resources, adopt independent management, leasing, shareholding, etc., take advantage of location, and develop cultural services, management services, logistics economy and other services to revitalize idle construction land, homesteads, farmhouses and old office buildings. At the same time, take agricultural industrialization as the core and promote the development of characteristic industries. Promote the integration of rural primary, secondary and tertiary industries, let farmers participate more in the development of industrial chains, and leave more value-added benefits to farmers. The second is to let grassroots party organizations be "leading geese". To fulfill the requirements of the main tasks of the Party’s rural work in the new era, we should give full play to the role of grass-roots party branches. Mobilize the masses, develop rural industries, and effectively link the interests of village collectives and farmers by leading and running cooperatives.

　　Third, continue to expand the main body of new agricultural management and promote the organic connection between small farmers and modern agricultural development. In 2021, the number of family farms and farmers’ cooperatives reached 3.9 million and 2.2 million respectively. In the future, we should continue to support the cultivation of new agricultural business entities such as family farms and farmers’ professional cooperatives, improve the financial and monetary policy system, provide financial and tax support, technical guidance and risk control for the development and growth of new agricultural business entities, and make them play an exemplary role in stabilizing production and ensuring supply. Through policy incentives, a number of productive service organizations covering the agricultural industrial chain, with high degree of specialization and standardized behavior will be formed to promote the standardized cultivation of agricultural products in China and achieve the development goals of reducing agricultural costs, increasing production and improving quality.

　　We should speed up the construction of a productive socialized service system for small farmers. At present, there are 955,000 socialized agricultural production service organizations in China, covering an area of 1.67 billion mu, driving more than 78 million small farmers. Agricultural productive socialization service is an important way to realize the scale of modern agricultural technology and equipment operation under the background of a large number of small farmers, which is suitable for the subjective and objective requirements of small farmers’ integration into modern agricultural development at present, and more effective policy measures should be taken to promote their healthy development.

　　Fourth, speed up the optimization of trade structure to ensure the supply of major agricultural products with double circulation. We should make full use of domestic and international markets and resources, actively promote the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand, import and export, and effectively use the international market to meet domestic food demand. In the past 10 years, China’s grain imports have generally shown an upward trend, and the grain imports have more than doubled. China’s rising grain output has not reduced its dependence on grain imports.

　　During the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, it is necessary to actively promote the diversification of China’s grain import sources and expand import channels. First, we must strengthen in-depth cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative; Second, we should actively broaden the overseas agricultural industrial chain, increase cooperation with relevant overseas grain enterprises, provide agricultural production services for local growers, especially investment in warehousing and logistics, and realize the control of the whole industrial chain. Especially with the entry into force of RCEP, the threshold of cross-border agricultural investment cooperation has been significantly reduced, and it is necessary to actively carry out regional agricultural industrial chain value chain cooperation.

　　However, we need to be alert that the epidemic situation in COVID-19 continues on a global scale, and we should effectively deal with its possible negative impact on grain trade, especially to avoid the excessive dependence of major imported agricultural products on a single country and prevent the grain supply chain from breaking.

　　Fifth, promote agricultural insurance and improve the market regulation and reserve system. In recent years, the market of agricultural products has fluctuated greatly, which has affected the healthy development of agricultural industry. It is necessary to vigorously promote agricultural insurance, establish a complete risk dispersion system, improve the market regulation and reserve system, and enhance the anti-risk ability of producers and operators of important agricultural products. First, we should improve the agricultural reinsurance system to effectively balance the regional risk differences. Use agricultural reinsurance business to eliminate the fluctuation of direct insurance business, and steadily promote subsidies for high-risk business of direct insurance business, so that insurance companies can focus on service capacity building and continuously improve the level of agricultural insurance protection. The second is to promote agricultural catastrophe insurance. On the one hand, it is necessary to expand the pilot scope of agricultural catastrophe insurance and cover major crops and important agricultural production activities as much as possible. On the other hand, it is necessary to establish a multi-channel agricultural insurance catastrophe risk fund, combine reinsurance to innovate financial instruments, and use diversified risk diversification tools to securitize agricultural catastrophe risks.

　　Promote the reform and improvement of the grain reserve system. In addition to natural risks, agricultural producers and operators have to deal with market risks. In recent years, the price fluctuation of major grain crops has intensified, and it is necessary to further strengthen the macro-control ability of the market. First, we should promote the reform and improvement of China’s grain reserve system in a timely manner and establish a special grain reserve for market regulation in line with the central grain reserve. Second, it is necessary to reform the existing grain purchasing and storage mechanism, and change the temporary "skimming surplus" purchasing and storage to the domestic and foreign markets.

　　Sixth, improve the logistics conditions in rural areas and promote the circulation of agricultural products and the consumption of rural residents. In order to promote the circulation of agricultural products and boost the consumption of rural residents, it is imperative to further improve the logistics conditions in rural areas in addition to ensuring the continuous growth of rural residents’ income. Logistics conditions belong to "hardware facilities", so it is necessary to speed up the improvement of the three-level logistics system in counties and villages and smooth the two-way circulation between urban and rural areas. By means of "express delivery into the village", farmers can efficiently connect with the market, which not only allows the means of production and consumer goods to enter, but also allows agricultural products to come out and realize the smooth flow of things.

　　Seventh, continue to consolidate the achievements of tackling poverty and prevent large-scale return to poverty. Promote the promotion of characteristic industries in poverty-stricken areas, and continue to tilt financial funds to poverty-stricken areas to support the development of local industries; Use microfinance, agricultural insurance and other means to support poverty-stricken households to develop industries; Promote the stable employment and income increase of the people out of poverty, increase on-the-job training, and actively carry out labor cooperation.

According to two people familiar with the matter, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, flew to Beijing on Sunday, April 28th to start a surprise trip to Tesla’s second largest market.

One of the people familiar with the matter said that Musk was seeking to meet with senior officials of China in Beijing to discuss matters related to the launch of FSD autopilot software in China, and to obtain relevant data approval to train the algorithm of his autopilot technology.

Musk’s trip to China was not made public. As he was not authorized to be interviewed by the media, the insider asked for anonymity. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Image source: Screenshot of Reuters News page

Four years ago, Tesla launched FSD. Although customers urged Tesla to launch FSD in China, the company has not yet achieved this goal. However, in response to a question on social media platform X this month, Musk said that Tesla may offer FSD to customers in China "soon". Meanwhile, China automakers such as Xpeng Motors have been seeking to compete with Tesla by launching similar software.

In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Transport of China jointly issued the Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of Intelligent Networked Vehicles Access and Road Access (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), announcing that intelligent Networked vehicles with mass production conditions and self-driving function can be piloted in a limited area after obtaining the access permit. At the same time, the responsibility for the accident when the automatic driving is turned on is clarified, and the operator will be responsible.

Since then, more than 30 cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have issued driving test licenses. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, BAIC, SAIC and other automobile manufacturers have successively obtained autonomous driving test licenses in relevant places.