At 20: 15 on June 27th, singer Jam Hsiao, who is known as the "Rain God", announced on social media that he successfully proposed to his agent Lin Youhui, and netizens shouted: Let’s celebrate it soon.
According to the national precipitation forecast issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory, from 20: 00 on June 27th to 08: 00 on July 1st, there will be different degrees of rainfall in most parts of the country. Chengdu, the city where Jam Hsiao once announced his settlement, even ushered in heavy rain to heavy rain. Subsequently, "Jam Hsiao proposed marriage and it rained in many places" quickly boarded the hot search list.
Jam Hsiao proposed marriage, which made it easier to rain. Is this a coincidence, a coincidence or a coincidence? Let’s take a simple look at it from a scientific point of view.
The success rate of "calling rain" is as high as 83%. Is it science or metaphysics?
Speaking of the initial birth of "Rain God", we have to mention July 21st, 2012. At that time, Jam Hsiao’s solo concert was held in Wukesong, Beijing. On the same day, Beijing ushered in the heaviest rainfall in 61 years. The road was interrupted by heavy rain, the traffic was paralyzed by stagnant water, and the street became a river. It was better to take a bus than a boat. Therefore, the name of "Rain God" spread like wildfire.
(Screenshot of Jam Hsiao Weibo)
The Beijing News made a statistic in 2013. After comparing the important itinerary of Jam Hsiao from March to December of that year with the local weather forecast of that day, they found that the probability of "calling for rain" in Jam Hsiao was as high as 83.3%, and the metaphysics that it would rain wherever Jam Hsiao held a concert became more and more mysterious.
If we compare carefully, we will find that Jam Hsiao’s cities and the corresponding time, whether it is Beijing in July 2012, Xi ‘an in July 2013 more than ten years ago, Shanghai in June 2022 in the past two years, and Jam Hsiao’s marriage proposal on June 27 this year, the time for his major activities happens to be the season when precipitation is concentrated in this place.
Those who have studied middle school geography should know that the climate type in most parts of China belongs to continental climate or monsoon climate, and from the meteorological point of view, May-July every year is in the summer of the northern hemisphere, and most parts of China are in a period of high temperature and rainy, so it is difficult for Jam Hsiao to attend activities in China during this period.
Moreover, if you pay attention to the observation, you will find that if Jam Hsiao does activities in China in August and September, the skill of "calling for rain" seems to be somewhat less effective. For example, in August, 2022, he recorded a program in Chengdu, but at that time, Chengdu was in the hot sun and it didn’t rain. For example, in September of the same year, Jam Hsiao appeared in Zhengzhou to attend the event, but the temperature in Zhengzhou reached more than 30 degrees, and it was also clear in Wan Li.
Why does the metaphysics of Jam Hsiao, the "Rain God", spread more and more? Pregnancy effect and confirmatory bias
In your life, have you ever had such an experience? For example, you wore a blue dress today, and then you found that there seemed to be more people wearing blue clothes than usual. For another example, you are in a very bad mood today, and then you feel as if all the people and things are coming to you.
In fact, your brain is going through a process similar to the above two situations when it comes to associating Jam Hsiao with rain. There are two psychological concepts that can be used to explain this phenomenon — — "Pregnant effect" and confirmatory bias.
The "pregnant woman effect", also known as the "retina effect" or the observer’s expectation effect, refers to the accidental factors in life. As you pay more attention to it, you have a cognitive bias that its frequency becomes higher and more common, so pregnant people are more likely to find other pregnant women in the street. When a person focuses on one of his own characteristics, he will also find more people with the same characteristics around him.
The so-called confirmatory bias means that people will selectively recall and collect favorable details and ignore unfavorable or contradictory information to support their existing ideas or assumptions. When people selectively collect or recall information or interpret information with prejudice, they will have confirmatory bias.
Think about it carefully: The more you pay attention to the relationship between Jam Hsiao and rain, the easier it will be for your brain to notice the information that Jam Hsiao went to a certain place to hold an activity and it rained locally, while selectively ignoring the information that Jam Hsiao held an activity but it didn’t rain locally.
Of course, science can’t explain the special fate between Jam Hsiao and rain endlessly. After all, under the background of global warming, there will still be an extreme cold wave in a certain place at a certain moment, but at least, scientific thinking can bring us a different perspective on things.
