Market review: this week, the main contract of palm oil 2501 rose, closing up 5.27% and closing at 9302 yuan/ton.
Market outlook: According to the data of Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crushers Association (SPPOMA), from October 1 to 20, 2024, the yield of fresh oil palm in Malaysia decreased by 6.63%, the oil yield increased by 0.06%, and the palm oil output decreased by 6.31%. At the same time, the data released by the Shipping Survey Agency (SGS) showed that Malaysia’s palm oil export volume from October 1 to 20 was 851,345 tons, an increase of 15.1% compared with 739,697 tons exported from September 1 to 20. The strong export of palm oil from Malaysia and the reduction of production boosted the price of horse palm oil. From the domestic situation, the import cost price of palm oil has risen sharply with the quotation of the place of origin, and the spot quotation of palm oil has risen sharply. However, due to the upside-down price difference between beans and palm oil, the price-performance ratio of palm oil is not high, and the transaction is weak, so it is just needed. Generally speaking, the supply of palm oil is tight, and it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate mainly at a high level, focusing on the changes in production policy and output export data.
Strategic suggestion: the overall supply of palm oil is tightening, with high shocks as the main factor.