According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, in April, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year due to factors such as the domestic epidemic and the continuous rise in international commodity prices. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices declined steadily, rising by 0.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from last month. According to industry insiders, the year-on-year increase of domestic CPI in April was still significantly lower than that of other major economies, and China’s prices continued to operate smoothly. Next, we should further do a good job in ensuring supply and price stability in key areas such as grain and energy, so as to provide strong support for ensuring price stability.
PPI both fell from the previous month and the year-on-year increase.
In April, the year-on-year increase of domestic food prices turned from negative to positive, ending the previous four-month decline. Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from a year-on-year perspective, food prices changed from a decrease of 1.5% in the previous month to an increase of 1.9%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.35 percentage points.
According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, eggs and potatoes rose by 24.0%, 14.1%, 13.3% and 11.8% respectively, which was larger than last month. The price of pork decreased by 33.3%, which was 8.1 percentage points lower than that of last month.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters that due to the epidemic, the demand for hoarding goods increased and the logistics cost increased, which pushed up the prices of vegetables, fruits and other foods in April. In addition, the pork production capacity has continued to be adjusted recently, and the central frozen pork reserve and storage work has been carried out in an orderly manner, which has narrowed the decline in pork prices, and the chain-on-chain increase has changed from 9.3% in the previous month to 1.5%.
In terms of non-food prices, the year-on-year increase in April was 2.2%, which was the same as that in the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 1.78 percentage points. Among them, domestic oil prices rose significantly in April due to the fluctuation of oil prices in the international market. In that month, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 29% and 31.7% respectively.
Dong Lijuan said that from the industrial producer’s ex-factory price index (PPI), in April, despite the high international commodity prices, all regions and departments resolutely implemented the decision-making and deployment of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the PPI and year-on-year growth rates both declined.
Wen Bin said that the PPI growth rate continued to fall in April, up 0.6% from the previous month, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points; It rose by 8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points. Among them, the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has played a significant role. Among the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, the price increase has dropped by one month, reaching 22. "Overall, the current overall price level in China is running in a reasonable range."
International and domestic prices are high and low.
Recently, countries have announced the price situation in April. The industry believes that from the latest data, despite the sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, inflation in the United States remains high, and inflation levels in European countries continue to remain high, while prices in China continue to operate smoothly, and international and domestic prices are high and low, in stark contrast.
Internationally, in March, the CPI and PPI in the United States were 8.5% and 11.2%, respectively, hitting 40 years and record highs; The year-on-year increase in April was 8.3% and 11% respectively, which remained at a historical high level. In terms of varieties, the prices of food, energy, used cars and public transportation increased by 9.4%, 30.3%, 22.7% and 21.8% respectively. In Europe, the initial value of CPI in the euro zone rose by 7.5% year-on-year in April, which was higher than that in March and continued to hit a record high. High inflation has seriously impacted the lives of ordinary people in the United States and Europe, and some families have financial crises. CNN quoted experts as saying that 3.4 million households in the United States had been cut off from electricity, water and gas within one year.
Domestically, the year-on-year increase of domestic CPI in April was still significantly lower than that of other major economies; On average, CPI rose by 1.4% from January to April. In April, the year-on-year increase of domestic PPI fell for the sixth consecutive month. In terms of varieties, domestic food prices fell by 1.9% from January to April, which promoted the CPI to drop by 0.35 percentage points. Although the energy price is affected by some import, the price of residential electricity and gas is basically stable. In April, the price of gasoline rose by nearly 30% year-on-year, which was significantly lower than the 44% increase in the United States. In addition, the domestic prices of clothing, daily necessities and services remained basically stable in April.
Isabella Weber, an economist at the University of Massachusetts in the United States, believes that the China government is trying to stabilize commodity prices, rather than directly passing them on to consumers. On the other hand, in foreign countries, last year, the US’s indiscriminate currency and out-of-control epidemic led to supply chain disorder, which directly pushed up global prices. This year, it has fueled the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, further pushing up the global inflation level. According to the British energy regulator, each household will increase its annual expenditure on gas and electricity by about 6,000 yuan due to the rising energy prices.
Focus on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the market
Next, can China continue to keep prices running smoothly? How to further improve the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices?
Wen Bin believes that at present, food and energy prices are still the main factors affecting the trend of CPI. In PPI, the rise of international commodity prices still forms imported inflationary pressure. In the next stage, further efforts should be made to ensure supply and stabilize prices in the market, so that China can stabilize the domestic price level.
Recently, a series of policies and measures have been launched intensively: in the early stage, 50 billion yuan of renewable energy subsidies were allocated to central power generation enterprises and 20 billion yuan was injected through the state-owned capital operation budget, and then 50 billion yuan of subsidy funds and 10 billion yuan were allocated; While doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, we will further smooth the logistics, especially in key areas, and maintain the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain; From May 1 this year to March 31, 2023, a provisional import tax rate of zero will be imposed on all coal … Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is crucial to maintaining overall economic and social stability, overall development and security, and we should do our best to ensure supply and stabilizing prices in key areas such as grain and energy.
"Stabilize grain production, and strive to expand soybean production while stabilizing rations and corn; Accurately arrange policy grain sales, continue to do a good job in grain purchases, strengthen market monitoring and early warning, strengthen law enforcement supervision in the grain market, and effectively guarantee the supply of domestic grain markets. " Meng Wei, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in addition, we should closely follow the commodity market and price trends, effectively guarantee market supply, accelerate the release of high-quality production capacity, and strengthen the regulation of reserves and imports and exports. Strengthen market expectation guidance, strengthen market supervision, severely crack down on illegal activities such as hoarding, driving up prices and spreading false information, and resolutely curb excessive speculation. (Reporter Qiu Haifeng Liao Ruiling)