China Economic Net, Beijing, February 7 (Reporter Li Fang) Just after the Spring Festival holiday, two pieces of news about the property market exploded. First, "Hefei’s property market plummeted, and the price was reduced by 200,000, but it still could not be sold." Second, "some cities have moved from destocking to restocking." At first glance, I thought that something had happened in the property market, but after careful study, I found that Hefei’s plunge was only a part of investors’ houses that could not be sold and asked the government to "save the market"; The statement of "replenishing inventory" is even more illogical under the tone of "three to one, one reduction and one supplement" in 2017 (de-capacity, de-inventory, deleveraging, cost reduction and short-boarding).
Lie 1: Hefei’s housing prices plummeted.
Truth: investors can’t sell their houses, and the price of new houses has not dropped significantly.
During the Spring Festival holiday, the news that Hefei’s housing prices plummeted constantly came out, and these two days once became a hot topic of public opinion. Some Hefei owners complained on the website of Hefei 12345 government service through train that "the house price in Shushan District of Hefei plummeted by 16%, the decline rate was the highest in all districts. At present, the second-hand housing in Hefei has started to sell, but the government has said that the price of new houses has remained stable. Our owners are extremely angry and the assets of the people have shrunk dramatically. "
The owner of Hefei North City said, "The house price in the North City will plummet, and the price reduction of 200,000 still cannot be sold. In December, the property market in the north city entered a cold winter, with few customers looking at second-hand houses and few investors. Many houses were still difficult to sell at a price reduction of 200,000 yuan. The house that was sold for 1.2 million in November can’t be sold for 1.02 million now. "
The owner of Binhu said, "Second-hand houses have been falling since November, and the decline has even expanded in December. No one cares about the price reduction of second-hand houses in some real estates of 4,000 yuan per flat. We know that there are many real estate speculators in Binhu, but we just need a lot of improvement. Faced with the sharp drop in second-hand housing prices, we are deeply worried and angry. At this rate, if the policy is not relaxed next year, won’t the value of our house be halved? We are just in need of improvement, not real estate speculators. We can’t accept the abnormal sharp drop in house prices. Please give us a statement, or it will happen next year ’ Rebellion ’ !”
Obviously, the "plunge" is mainly concentrated in second-hand houses — — This highly market-oriented market is a "you are willing to buy and I am willing to sell" market, and the government will not interfere with the price of second-hand housing. In these cases, the owners shouted "plunge", hoping to pressure the government to let go of the purchase restriction, which is actually the same as the nature of "developers take the initiative to reduce prices and owners angrily smash sales offices" in previous years, and it makes no sense.
In fact, the price of new houses in Hefei has not fallen sharply. Anhui Business Daily, a local media in Hefei, reported that in January, there were 14 real estate prices in Hefei urban area and three counties, of which 2 prices rose, 8 prices fell, and 4 new sites opened for the first time. Among the buildings with falling prices, there are two buildings with falling prices in Shushan District. One is a building along the Yangtze River West Road, with a price reduction of 0.78 yuan/square meter, and the other is a building along the South Second Ring Road with a price reduction of 250 yuan/square meter. The price reduction of two properties in Xinzhan District did not exceed 0.5 yuan/square meter; The price of a real estate in high-tech zone was reduced by 0.21 yuan/square meter.
The so-called "plunge" is only caused by the price reduction of some second-hand housing landlords, most of whom were investors who had previously entered Hefei. After the purchase restriction order was issued in Hefei, the property market stabilized and investors were eager to get out, so they chose to sell their houses at a reduced price. However, due to the introduction of the purchase restriction order, many buyers began to wait and see, and the psychology of buying up instead of buying down reappeared, which made it difficult for some second-hand housing landlords to sell their houses even if they sold them at a reduced price.
Lie 2: Some cities have moved from destocking to restocking.
Truth: It is impossible to increase land on a large scale by subtraction in first-and second-tier cities.
Recently, media reports show that some cities have transferred to the inventory replenishment stage of the property market. According to the report, the report of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute shows that as of the end of December 2016, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 35 cities in the first, second and third lines was 24.82 million, 167.53 million and 40.99 million square meters respectively, with chain-on-chain growth rates of -3.3%, -0.8% and -0.5% respectively, and year-on-year growth rates of -26.9% and-9.5% respectively.
Among them, since May 2016, the inventory of first-tier cities has shown a trend of double decline from the previous month and year-on-year. Generally speaking, it is urgent for first-tier cities to replenish their stocks in the future. The new supply of second-tier cities in December 2016 was less than the new transaction volume, which led to a downward trend in inventory. Based on the data of the whole year, the inventory also maintained a trend of ring-on-ring and year-on-year decline. The new supply of third-tier cities in December was also less than the new transaction volume, which led to a decline in inventory and a significant improvement in destocking effect.
The report believes that the destocking strategy will continue in 2017, especially in the third-and fourth-tier cities. For first-and second-tier cities, especially some hot cities, from the data of 2016, the inventory scale is insufficient. Therefore, from the perspective of curbing housing prices and meeting basic housing needs, it is still necessary to actively replenish inventory through land supply.
It is worth mentioning that the report analyzes 35 typical cities. They are first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Second-tier cities: Changchun, Shenyang, Dalian, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Jinan, Qingdao, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Nanchang, Changsha, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Chongqing, Guiyang, Nanning, Xi ‘an, Lanzhou and Xining. Third-tier cities: Huainan, Jining, Yantai, Changzhou, Nantong, Wenzhou, Jiujiang, Jingmen, Maoming and Beihai.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, holds different opinions. He said that first-and second-tier cities are definitely in short supply of stocks. From the perspective of real estate transactions, first-and second-tier cities are now mainly doing subtraction to reduce the demand for investment speculation, and it is unlikely to increase land on a large scale, including the recent urban land regulations, which all require the increase of satellite cities. "So the logic of this replenishment is problematic."
Outline of National Land Planning (2016— In 2030), it is proposed to guide the development of urbanization by classification, improve the quality of urbanization in optimized development areas, and build Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other areas into urban agglomerations with world influence, focusing on revitalizing existing land, strictly controlling new construction land, coordinating the above-ground and underground space, and guiding the population of central cities to transfer to surrounding areas in an orderly manner.
"The government’s expectation is to transfer the demand to the surrounding satellite cities to stock up." Zhang Dawei said.